Individual Contractor on Financing for Development (Data Analysis)

Result of Service• Substantive contribution to the development of the GUARD tool for measuring IFFs-Phantom FDI. • Results of the econometric analysis for incorporation in related outputs of the project (e.g. technical paper/policy brief). • The IC is responsible for updating and maintaining the files and data used in an electronic format Work LocationBeirut Expected duration6 months Duties and Responsibilities1. Background Phantom FDI are typically routed through low-or no-tax jurisdictions for profit shifting and regulatory arbitrage, undermining fiscal revenues and diverting resources away from national development priorities. According to the IMF, phantom FDI accounts for up to 40 per cent of global FDI, while the OECD stresses how multinational corporations exploit such flows to disconnect financial activity from the real economy. Assessing phantom FDI risks is essential to protect the integrity of national statistics, reduce fiscal leakages, and improve the effectiveness of investment-led development strategies. It also explains why high FDI inflows may not translate into tangible development gains-highlighting the need to assess not only the volume, but the quality of FDI. 2. Objective and methodology ESCWA is actively contributing to the DA15 project on Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) through pilot engagement with Egypt, one of the designated countries under the project framework. As part of this collaboration, ESCWA is developing a strategic policy tool designed to detect and mitigate FDI-related IFFs – specifically phantom FDI – through a pairwise risk assessment modeling framework. The approach leverages gravity modeling to develop a Gravity Utility for the Assessment and Reduction of Disguised Investments (GUARD) to estimate and assess IFFs using bilateral investment data. This tool aims to enhance Egypt’s capacity to identify, quantify, and reduce risks associated with phantom FDI, ultimately supporting the development of evidence-based investment and tax policies aligned with sustainable development objectives. 3. Tasks - duties and responsibilities The Individual Contractor (IC) will provide substantive support to the work of the Financing for Development Team in the areas of specialty for this assignment. Specific responsibilities include: • Extract and compile relevant economic indicators disaggregated by partner country and sector, which pertain to phantom FDI and illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Egypt. • Assess availability and quality of FDI related data and address identified gaps using appropriate statistical methods to ensure reliable model outputs. • Provide technical support in econometric modeling and analysis to identify high-risk foreign jurisdictions and domestic sectors linked to phantom FDI and contribute to developing sectoral and country-level risk profile based on medium and long-term patterns and anomalies in investment flows. • Support in compiling and mapping risk indicators by applying the developed model to identify high-risk sectors and counterpart countries, with visual outputs tailored to the Egyptian context. • Assemble original statistical material, adjust reported data from different sources, and load data into a computerized database system. • Assist in the maintenance and update of relevant computerized databases, ensuring data integrity and accessibility. • Leverage analytical and visualization tools —such as scenario development—while creating interactive visualizations through appropriate data visualization software to illustrate key areas of phantom FDI. • Perform comprehensive statistical compilations to support the preparation of reports and in-depth analysis. • Assist in the preparation of literature reviews, research papers and presentations. • Prepares a variety of reports, presentations, tables, lists, graphs, charts, and/or diagrams based on the data analyzed for information and review by senior officers. • Collaborate and contribute closely to the work of team members in the field of Financing for Development. • Assist in the preparation of upcoming activities and meetings and other substantive tasks. Qualifications/special skillsMaster’s degree in economics, applied economics, finance, econometrics or in a related field is required. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. At least one year of work experience in research, data extraction or using statistical tools is required One year of experience in practical user-friendly tools to support trend analysis, scenario development and the visualization of desired futures is required. Proficiency in statistical software (i.e STATA, EVIEWS) is required. Knowledge of the time series macro econometric models and panel data analysis is required. • Knowledge of Vector Autoregressive Models (VARs) or Structural VAR is desirable and • Knowledge of panel data modeling approaches like Fixed Effects, the Dynamic Panel Threshold, Gravity Models and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is desirable. LanguagesEnglish and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat; and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA. For this position, fluency in English and Arabic is required.. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas. Additional InformationRecruitment for this position is on a local basis. The incumbent is required to have the legal right to live and work in the specified working location. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.