Consultant for the development of a guideline for using probabilistic risk assessments in impact-based forecasts and anticipatory action

Result of ServiceA guidance document (in English) that describes the input and output data from probabilistic risk assessments, and explains their relationship and usefulness with impact-based forecasting. In addition, the guideline must describe the connection of probabilistic risk assessments and impact-based forecasts with anticipatory action. The document will also include a set of existing case studies on probabilistic risk assessments, impact-based forecasting and anticipatory action in the Americas and the Caribbean. Work LocationHome-based Expected duration5 months, ideally from 07.07.25 to 06.12.25. Duties and ResponsibilitiesCreated in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG/ASG), UNDRR has over 150 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses, and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. It supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. In November 2022, the UN Secretary-General launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) initiative to advance efforts to protect everyone in the world by the end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS). UNDRR, together with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), leads the global coordination of the EW4ALL in close collaboration with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). This initiative aims to ensure that all people everywhere are protected by early warning systems by 2027. As per the United Nations Secretary-General's Executive Action Plan, EW4ALL is based upon the following four pillars: Pillar 1: Disaster Risk Knowledge (led by UNDRR), Pillar 2: Detection, Observations, Monitoring, Analysis, and Forecasting (led by WMO), Pillar 3: Warning Dissemination and Communication (led by ITU), and Pillar 4: Preparedness and Response Capabilities (led by IFRC). The inputs and outputs of probabilistic risk assessments have a close relationship with the requirements to carry out impact-based forecasts. Whereas the hazard still needs to be modelled after one or more forecastable variables, the exposure and vulnerability components used in probabilistic risk assessments are safe to assume that remain constant and therefore, can used for the estimate of the impact(s) of interest in advance of their occurrence. Anticipatory action instruments always include a set of pre-agreed activities that are activated once a threshold is exceeded. These thresholds are associated, in principle, to one or more indexes that have good correlation with the impact(s) of interest (e.g., displaced population). Therefore, anticipatory action can be understood as a subproduct of impact-based forecasts by the latter allowing a proper estimation of the indexes. On the other hand, determining how often thresholds are activated are closely related with the outcomes of probabilistic risk assessments, such as the loss exceedance curve. The consultant will be home-based and will be under the supervision of UNDRR Regional Office for the Americas and the Caribbean’s risk knowledge officer. Qualifications/special skillsAdvanced university degree (master's degree or equivalent) in civil engineering, climate change, disaster risk management, or a related discipline is required. A first level university degree in combination with two additional years of qualifying work experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. - At least fifteen (15) years of experience in probabilistic risk assessment, early warning systems, early warning systems, anticipatory action and disaster prevention is required. - Experience with early warning/early action, including being familiar with hydrometeorological (flood, drought, etc.) and geological (earthquakes, landslides, etc.) hazards assessment and mapping, vulnerability assessment and weather forecasting, and monitoring, is required. - Experience with at least one major government institution or international organization working on early warning/early action, disaster risk reduction/risk knowledge is desirable. - Experience in developing guidelines and training materials for probabilistic risk assessments is desirable. LanguagesEnglish and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. Fluency in English is required for this consultancy. Knowledge of Spanish is desirable. Additional InformationDue to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted. *FEMALE CANDIDATES ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO APPLY*. UNDRR values diversity among its staff. We welcome applications from qualified women, men, and people with disabilities. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.